Trumka, No. 2, Is Leading Candidate
To Replace Sweeney at Convention

If, as is very likely, John Sweeney withdraws his name as a candidate for reelection as AFL-CIO president, he is almost certain to endorse Secretary Treasurer Richard Trumka, the second-in-command, at the federation’s convention in July.

There are precedents for the No. 2 man in the AFL-CIO hierarchy to advance to the top position when a vacancy occurs. George Meany and Lane Kirkland were both secretary-treasurers before they were elected to the presidency.

Sweeney had indicated about a year ago that he wanted to serve another four years as president, but he has encountered strong opposition from a group of top labor leaders who represent about 40% of the total federation membership. Given labor’s dismal record during Sweeney’s ten-year tenure, he knows he would go down to a humiliating defeat if he decided to run.

Trumka, a former president of the United Mine Workers, who gained national attention for his courageous leadership in the Pittston Coal Co. strike, is the AFL-CIO’s leading strategist in major organizing campaigns and labor’s capital investment activities. He is one of labor’s best public speakers and a favorite at major demonstrations. He would be the preferred candidate of the construction and manufacturing unions.

The only possible opposition to Trumka might come from John Wilhelm, co-president of Unite Here, whose name has been frequently mentioned as a candidate for the top AFL-CIO post. Wilhelm, a veteran union organizer, does not have Trumka’s broad experience and credentials. But he could count on the support of Andy Stern, president of the 1.6 million Service Employees, who was his associate in the now defunct New Unity Partnership.

Stern is probably the only labor leader who could realistically challenge Trumka, but the strong odds are that he won’t.

In the hope of avoiding a bruising election battle that could fracture the AFL-CIO, Trumka might offer the Stern camp the position of secretary-treasurer and a few other concessions. A Trumka-Wilhelm ticket could avert the need for an election at the AFL-CIO’s convention.

The Executive Council meeting will have to make some crucial decisions that will drastically change the labor movement, possibly for decades. It is fairly certain that the national AFL-CIO will be required to turn over as much as 50% of its per capita revenue and sharply curtail its activities, with multimillions of dollars returned to the large international unions for organizing.

The questionable assumption by virtually every top labor leader is that spending more money on organizing is the key that will recruit millions of non-union workers. Aside from the fact that giant corporations can outspend unions at the money game, there is no coherent strategy for large scale organizing.

In the last 50 years, the AFL-CIO has been able to organize fewer than a handful of companies that employ 25,000 workers or more. Compare this record with the achievement of the early days of the CIO, when General Motors, Ford, Chrysler, General Electric, Westinghouse, Western Union, Caterpillar and dozens of other major companies were organized in a couple of years.

A thorny question before the Council will be how to restructure the AFL-CIO and its affiliated unions to improve their effectiveness. Heated debate is expected over Stern’s proposal to shrink the AFL-CIO’s 58 internationals into no more than 20 “mega unions,” with each focusing on a particular sector of the nation’s economy.

While Stern has conducted a high-powered media campaign, including an extensive cover story in The New York Times Magazine, his keystone proposal for compulsory mergers has found hardly any support from top labor leaders or an enthusiastic response from any rank-and-file group, except from his own members.

Stern says he wants “real” changes, not “cosmetic” ones. He tells union members how to judge the decisions of the Council: “After each statement of a lofty-sounding goal, look for the fine print. Where’s the funding on a whole new scale, the strategy to win, standards and accountability, and a structure that matches the strategy. If these elements aren’t part of the plan, there is no plan.”

Perhaps the most important decision that will come up for intense discussion is the future role of state federations and central labor councils. It is doubtful that these affiliates will get much of what they’ve asked for, since they have no representatives either on the Executive Committee or the Executive Council to plead their case.

Stern has placed an unusually high bar for the Executive Council to vault. If he doesn’t get his “mega unions,” is he prepared to accept compromise solutions or will he follow through on his threat to quit the AFL-CIO and set up his own labor federation? A clue to his intentions will come during and after the Council meeting.

The Council’s recommendations will not be final. They will be presented to the delegates at the July convention in Chicago, along with other resolutions from affiliated unions. In the next five months, there may be many twists and turns in the ongoing debate about labor’s future.

Our weekly “LaborTalk” and “Labor and the War” columns can be viewed at our Web site http://www.laboreducator.org/, My e-mail address is hkelber@igc.org.